Effects of eddies on Bay of Bengal cyclone intensity

Predicting cyclone intensities in the Indian Ocean has been a challenging problem. Because of the highly varying bathymetry of the Indian coast, even a slight error in the prediction of landfall point and intensity can lead to a totally different storm surge height. Though capabilities of cyclone track prediction have significantly improved during recent years, cyclone intensity forecasts still need improvement. Various dynamical and statistical models have different rates of success for cyclone intensity prediction. In addition to atmospheric parameters and sea surface temperature (SST), another important parameter that enhances the understanding of the intensification of the cyclones is the upper ocean heat storage that is generally reflected in the oceanic eddies and dynamic topography. Sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) from radar altimeters can provide information on this parameter. The relationship between the SSHAs and the associated hydrographic structure, particularly of eddies, is discussed by Ali et al. [1998], Gopalan et al. [2000], Babu et al. [2003], and Gopalakrishna et al. [2003]. Because of these changes in hydrographic features caused by SSHAs, warm (cold) core oceanic eddies have more (less) heat content compared with their surroundings.